The city suspended all DDC municipal construction projects at the end of march. The small business bridge forgiveness loan program is set to expire by next month. We filed all our department of buildings drawings with the city and now wait to see when our projects resume. I came to my latest job thinking government work is more stable, as DDC libraries take 10 years to build, only to have my world turned upside down. So now I’m resorting to gambling investing in stocks in my free time to make some income.
I won big several years ago by investing in Ariad. I noticed that hedge funds had major holdings of Ariad at $20, but for some reason the stock price was only $2. Seeing what a bargain it was, I bought 15,000 thousands of shares. The next day, when I read more about my investment, I nearly shat in my pants. They had a death in a clinical trial and that’s why the stock was cheap. There was a possibility that the company may never recover, and might fold because their primary drug candidate failed. I found myself weeks later writing urgent pleas to the FDA as a patient’s rights activist to allow patients access to Ariad’s drug. I wasn’t mother Teresa writing for the patients, I just wanted my stock to recover so I could make bank.
Into this fear, Alex Denner bought $20 million dollars worth of ariad. He was handsomely rewarded when he made $200 million from his investment when the FDA approved Ariad’s drug’s use in 2nd line cancer treatments and the company was promptly bought out. I made several hundred thousand and decided to quit investing while I was ahead.
I thought trump was going to tank the economy to get back into the market so I sat on cash for several years, but the market kept edging higher and higher. Now with the virus threatening economic depression, stocks are low again… a perfect de-risked atmosphere for investing.
In the last downturn I plunked my cash into Berkshire B and was handsomely rewarded for my faith in the whorehouse. During the 1973-1974 crash Warren Buffet said, “I feel like an oversexed man in a whorehouse. Now is the time to invest and get rich.”
During this downturn, I’ve done more of the same… I put some money into BRKB, but also resumed my gambling habit, biotech investing. Back in 2016 I made 4 times my yearly salary in one day off of Ariad stock. I’ve been nervous to invest in biotechs ever since because I’ve also lost my yearly salary in one day on Geron. I started a system of analysis right before I quit stocks. To my surprise, the stocks i’ve been doing rather well despite the corona recession.
I looked at what 3 of the most successful biotech hedge funds are doing by looking at their quarterly 13f reports. One fund I've been tracking made $800 million last quarter alone. I see where they overlap in stock picks and look at their actions, (buying holding selling) and follow their lead. I look at how they take profits. It’s a simple system that has yielded enormous gains. In the last quarter, AMRN jumped 17%, AXSM jumped 23%, HARP gained 21%, MYOK gained 102%, ZYME gained 4%, and YMAB gained 21%. My only loser was NXTC which lost 3%. I have no idea what these companies do. It’s only when they’re in the news that I find out MYOK had success with heart conditions and AXSM met Alzheimer’s milestones. Without knowledge of what these companies do, I analyze what the experts (research PhDs, MD’s) at biotech investment hedgefunds are interested in. I couldn’t care less what the companies do, I’m just investing like a “f@&%er”.
My investment philosophy stands in start contrast to venerable Warren Buffet who invests in stocks for 20-30 year spans. “When I buy I don’t care if the outlook changed in the last 24 hours. I dont buy or sell on headlines. I can not time the market. if i knew what the market would do, I’d be even wealthier. i'm buying the stock because I’m making an informed intelligent decision based on price to earnings rations, etc...... blah bah blah”
Disclaimer: If you have a heart condition, it is not advisable to follow my investment strategy. It’s reckless and perhaps unhealthy for you to trade like me. I am not a trader nor an investor… just a simple architect looking to make a quick buck sharing his stock analysis tips. Have fun.
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